By Gustavo Coronel

The mood that permeates Venezuela today is one that seems to signal impending doom for autocratic Hugo Chavez. The lyrics of Paul Anka’s “My Way” seem to float in the Caracas air: “And now, the end is near… ”.

Three moves by Chavez, all taken during the last month, comprise his attempt to maintain control over an increasingly frustrated country. The first one is the passing, on the very last day of the period of legislative power granted to him by the National Assembly, of 26 decree-laws that will give him most of the powers that he tried to get, unsuccessfully, through the December 2007 Constitutional referendum.

Defeated by the voters in the referendum, he is now using this blunt force to obtain what the popular vote denied him. No one in the country, except those who drew up the over 2000 articles of the new decrees, knew about them in advance or had a chance to discuss them. In another major move, Chavez used his General Comptroller and the Supreme Tribunal of Justice to ban 260 Venezuelans from running for office in the November regional elections. Not surprisingly, several of the best candidates of the opposition, favored to win by all polls, are included in the ban, which openly violates articles 42 and 65 of the current Venezuelan Constitution.

The third move has been his takeover of Banco de Venezuela, the third largest private bank in the country, owned by Spanish Bank of Santander. Chavez characteristically announced this move during one of his TV shows, without any notice made to the owners. Chavez had been in Spain only days before, trying to mend his relationship with the King, but did not disclose his intentions.

Although these moves would seem to indicate overwhelming power and complete political control of the country, a more careful reading suggests them to be attempts at asserting authority by a weakening leader facing increasing opposition from Venezuelan civil society. The ban on opposition leaders is being challenged in the streets, giving rise to popular protests in which the students are once more leading the way. A delegation of MERCOSUR, the free trade organization from the southern cone, has visited Caracas to investigate the ban and finds it undemocratic, which will prevent Chavez from joining the organization.

Public opinion in the U.S. and Europe is beginning to see Mr. Chavez’s tactics in the same category with Zimbabwe’s Mugabe. The reaction against the decree-laws is starting to unfold and could develop into open civil rebellion.

One of the new decrees would give Chavez the rank of four-star general, not currently existing, and the pompous title of “Generalissimo” in the same level with dictators like Tito, Franco, and Chiang Kai-Sheck. Another decree will convert the state-owned petroleum company, PDVSA, into an agricultural and industrial conglomerate, and still a third would create a new army, loyal to Chavez and not to the nation.

Leaders of the opposition, including industrialist Rafael Alfonzo and recent Milton Friedman award winner and student leader Jon Goicochea, are calling for a popular rebellion, including, if need be, a general strike against the Chavez regime, while members of his own political coalition are speaking in open disagreement with the measures. The takeover of Banco de Venezuela has pushed the country risk of Venezuela to record highs, now 679 points — highest in the hemisphere. The fear of private investors is turning into terror as some of the decrees, especially one on “food sovereignty,” could justify the takeover of important privately-owned food companies.

Once again, Hugo Chavez has brought Venezuela to the brink of open social conflict. He now seems determined to become an absolute ruler. He is forcing a showdown with the Venezuelan people that he has little chance of winning, given the mood of the country. This time he cannnot expect much solidarity from his allies in the hemisphere since Morales, Kirchner, Ortega, and the Castro dynasty are experiencing similar — if not even worse — problems. As the Venezuelan private sector, the Catholic church, the student movement, the opposition parties, civil society in general and many of the members of his own political coalition take the media and the streets against him, Chavez will be fighting for his political life, weighed down by the burden of ridicule and possibly facing the final curtain. He could probably claim he did it “his way,” but history will say that his way was not the people’s way.

 By MARY ANASTASIA O’GRADY

It is no secret that Hugo Chávez wants to be just like Fidel Castro someday. And last week he took a step closer to that goal by laying down 26 new decrees designed to eviscerate property rights and further consolidate economic power in the presidential palace. He also nationalized the third-largest bank in the country.

Yet it is not only in the economic realm that Hugo is mimicking his Cuban idol. What has been less publicized is the Venezuelan president’s expanding collection of political prisoners, and his other sinister methods of neutralizing opponents.

The economic measures of the Bolivarian Revolution are worrying enough on their own. The government has proclaimed food production and distribution a public good, which means that the state can intervene in any way it wants. Indeed, it already has; and many believe that Mr. Chávez now has the Venezuela food processor and beverage maker Polar targeted for nationalization.

Mr. Chávez has spent nearly a decade trying to transform Venezuela into a centrally planned economy. The results are dismal. There are food shortages, private-sector investment and employment are shrinking, and inflation for the past 12 months was almost 34%. A rising homicide rate suggests that civil order is breaking down.

Nevertheless, Mr. Chávez appears pleased with the circumstances, illuminating another way in which he resembles Castro: Both men are narcissists above all else, and both have been driven by an intense desire to rule as the omnipotent caudillo. The welfare of the nation is beside the point.

In political terms, this means that all challengers to the president’s power must be put down, and forcibly if necessary. Contrary to claims by both Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and Jimmy Carter that Mr. Chávez’s Venezuela is a democracy, this government is trying to annihilate its political competition.

Mr. Chávez hasn’t had to play hardball with many Venezuelans. Few are secure enough to challenge him, and many have been easy to co-opt by tying their financial survival to his agenda. Moreover, Venezuela is a notoriously corrupt place, and it’s not only the inner Chávez circle that is enjoying the party.

There are, though, the few upstarts who can’t be bought or intimidated; and for them, Mr. Chávez has had to make use of his own version of "the law."

Last week, his handpicked supreme court ruled that 260 aspiring candidates for the November municipal and gubernatorial elections — most of whom oppose him — will be barred from the ballot because they have been accused of corruption.

Of course this doesn’t quite work under Venezuelan law, because an individual may only be barred as a candidate if he is convicted. But the Chávez government got around that problem: None has been tried but the National Controller — a chavista — has declared them guilty by fiat.

More ominous is the growing list of political prisoners. One is Ivan Simonovis, the former chief of the Caracas metropolitan police, who during his tenure earned a reputation as a disciplined professional and dedicated crime fighter. He was the top cop in the city on April 11, 2002, the day of a mass protest that provoked the brief resignation of the president.

Seventeen people were murdered that day, and an independent police force would have tried to figure out who was behind the killings. But Mr. Chávez took over the metropolitan police. Mr. Simonovis was arrested on Nov. 22, 2004, accused of being responsible for three of those deaths.

His wife Bonny is one of his lawyers, and I spoke to her by telephone on Thursday. She told me it is against Venezuelan law to hold a suspect for more than two years, but her appeals for his freedom have been rejected. She also said that during his entire three years and eight months of incarceration, her husband has been held in solitary in a four square-meter cell that has no windows and no ventilation. His health has deteriorated.

His trial, which began on March 20, 2006, is now the longest in Venezuelan history. Closing statements were supposed to be heard last week, but the judge granted the prosecution more time to review the arguments. Mrs. Simonovis tells me that this means the case can drag on for months longer, though no evidence to convict her husband has ever been presented.

Another political prisoner is National Guard Lt. Col. Humberto Quintero, who was responsible for capturing Colombian terrorist leader Rodrigo Granda in Venezuela in December 2004 and turning him over to Colombia. Mr. Quintero ought to be treated as a hero in Venezuela. Instead he has been thrown into a maximum security prison and has been allegedly tortured.

These men are being punished for nonconformity with chavismo. But their arrests also serve as warnings to the rest of the nation: Get in the way of Mr. Chávez’s caudillo aspirations at your peril.